Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 111.296834 127.294437 145.284515 167.110564 193.002570 222.894794 260.244471
2026-01-18 90.451142 110.852062 135.808459 168.933044 212.270631 267.780442 345.469673
2026-01-25 76.886063 99.037111 127.851894 168.763746 226.486159 306.780226 430.144638
2026-02-01 66.251139 88.656833 119.222911 164.994158 233.629809 335.845485 505.865881
2026-02-08 58.192862 80.348336 111.785713 161.016034 238.789601 361.723011 581.263785
2026-02-15 51.960257 73.688179 105.581167 157.515171 243.442464 386.768395 660.084639
2026-02-22 49.837128 72.699089 107.485226 166.562394 269.371281 451.421938 825.490038
2026-03-01 46.419734 69.293438 105.142485 168.195412 282.709920 496.193557 964.640258
2026-03-08 43.591001 66.472432 103.333494 170.337009 297.076856 545.409178 1126.882647
2026-03-15 40.722447 63.276364 100.506621 170.207323 307.000410 587.592614 1285.917687
2026-03-22 39.716537 63.036160 102.609976 179.246129 336.225127 676.082638 1586.370546
2026-03-29 38.530540 62.353759 103.825618 186.706279 363.467709 766.483268 1926.637084
2026-04-05 37.048239 61.099118 104.023748 192.518192 389.027949 861.279236 2326.701858
2026-04-12 35.196640 59.021312 102.491768 194.641175 406.886559 942.250316 2725.155004
2026-04-19 33.244172 56.582292 100.015866 194.432232 419.283709 1012.463558 3124.669499
2026-04-26 31.003296 53.419253 95.825510 189.962918 420.543180 1052.557239 3438.006469
2026-05-03 28.954618 50.457321 91.757810 185.251721 420.391991 1088.792014 3758.014164
2026-05-10 27.158026 47.839391 88.142212 181.109319 420.992386 1127.624249 4112.888961
2026-05-17 26.942963 48.268314 90.783810 191.820618 463.440718 1311.259155 5244.407925
2026-05-24 25.923589 47.023185 89.803802 193.756190 481.997939 1422.530877 6119.364266
2026-05-31 25.028725 45.958503 89.106829 196.295569 502.887141 1549.512769 7193.145393
2026-06-07 23.979547 44.501316 87.425496 196.141763 515.757484 1651.881525 8224.657936
2026-06-14 23.823977 44.878929 89.830692 206.871377 564.853140 1914.988267 10598.394559